Spatiotemporal decoupling of littoral and lacustrine geosmin dynamics: Implications for early warning in drinking water reservoirs
Abstract
The relationship between cyanobacterial niche characteristics and the transport dynamics of harmful metabolites to drinking water intakes remains poorly understood. This study integrated a national survey with a five-year high-frequency monitoring program to characterize these dynamics, focusing on the potent odorant geosmin. The national investigation revealed that 14% of surveyed sites exceeded the odor threshold of 10 ng L-1, indicating a non-negligible risk. In the YQ Reservoir, Planktothrix agardhii was identified as a primary producer. Monitoring revealed a distinct spatiotemporal decoupling: shallow littoral zones functioned as production centers where P. agardhii biomass peaked 8 days prior to the lacustrine intake. Time-lagged correlation analysis indicated that littoral biomass predicts intake geosmin concentrations with a 5-week lead time (R2 = 0.41). Ammonium was identified as the key regulatory factor, exhibiting its strongest correlation with geosmin in littoral zones (R2 = 0.37), though this linkage attenuated during transport. This proposed mechanistic transport model and tiered framework shift surveillance from reactive intake sampling to proactive littoral sentinel stations, establishing a critical predictive window for preventive intervention in reservoir-dependent water supplies.